Spot Alumina Transaction Prices in Northern Regions Continue to Decline; Spot Alumina Prices May Extend the Downtrend in the Short Term [SMM Morning Comment on Alumina]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on February 13

Futures Market: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at 3,366 yuan/mt, reached a high of 3,391 yuan/mt, a low of 3,350 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,361 yuan/mt, down by 37 yuan/mt or 1.10%. Open interest stood at 171,000 lots.

Spot Alumina: On Wednesday, Xinjiang aluminum smelters tendered for 5,000 mt of alumina at an ex-factory price of 3,200 yuan/mt. North-west China aluminum smelters tendered for 10,000 mt of spot alumina at a delivery-to-factory price of 3,425 yuan/mt.

Industry Updates:

According to the "Shanghai Futures Exchange Group Delivery Business Management Measures" and other relevant regulations, the following decisions have been made:

1. Chalco Logistics Group Co., Ltd. is approved as a group delivery center for copper, aluminum, and alumina futures.

2. Chalco Logistics Group Central International Land Port Co., Ltd. is approved as a group delivery warehouse for copper, aluminum, and alumina futures. The first storage location is at No. 17, Xin'an Road, Shangjie District, Zhengzhou City, Henan Province, with a certified storage capacity of 150,000 mt for alumina and 50,000 mt for aluminum. No regional premium or discount is set for alumina, while a regional discount of 120 yuan is applied to aluminum. The second storage location is at No. 118, Tangnan Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, with a certified storage capacity of 10,000 mt for aluminum and 5,000 mt for copper. No regional premium or discount is set for aluminum or copper.

3. Chalco Logistics Group Zhongzhou Co., Ltd. is approved as a group delivery warehouse for copper futures. The storage location is at No. 45, Xihuo Road, Xiaotang, Shishan Town, Nanhai District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, with a certified storage capacity of 10,000 mt. No regional premium or discount is set.

4. From the date of this announcement, Chalco Logistics Group Co., Ltd., Chalco Logistics Group Central International Land Port Co., Ltd., and Chalco Logistics Group Zhongzhou Co., Ltd. shall carry out group delivery business in accordance with relevant regulations.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 12, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of 54 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On February 12, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 2,694 mt from the previous trading day to 30,900 mt. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 301 mt to 2,711 mt. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina decreased by 601 mt to 0. In Guangxi and Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina remained unchanged at 0 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 2,994 mt to 28,200 mt.

Overseas Market: As of February 12, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $538/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $19.30/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate sell price was around 7.33. This price, converted to domestic mainstream port external selling prices, was approximately 4,694 yuan/mt, 1,253 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.

Summary: Overall, in the short term, alumina operating capacity continues to increase, and the spot alumina market supply is relatively ample compared to earlier periods. Domestic alumina prices continue to decline, while overseas spot alumina transaction prices have stabilized. Model calculations show that importing alumina results in a loss exceeding 1,000 yuan/mt. The domestic alumina export window may gradually open. In the short term, there are no clear expectations for alumina production cuts. Supply remains unchanged, while some aluminum production cuts or technological transformation capacities in south-west China may gradually resume production. Demand has slightly rebounded but is unlikely to reverse the relatively ample supply in the spot alumina market. Further attention should be paid to domestic alumina exports, bauxite prices, and supply conditions.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]