[SMM Hot-Rolled Daily Review] Expectations Persist, Next Week's Coil Prices May Fluctuate Upward

Today, the most-traded HRC contract continued to fluctuate upward, closing at 3,449 with a 0.43% increase, while spot prices narrowed down by 10 yuan/mt. In the first week after the holiday, HRC prices initially declined before rebounding. In the spot market, mainstream participants gradually resumed work this week, but downstream sentiment remained cautious after the holiday, and demand recovery still requires time, with overall market transactions performing moderately. Looking ahead, macro side, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese exports to the US. Cost side, iron ore prices are expected to strengthen due to disruptions from overseas shipment news, while coke prices are expected to decline, offsetting each other and keeping HRC costs temporarily stable. Demand side, a new cold wave is approaching, putting end-use demand into a verification phase, with a neutral impact on prices for now. In summary, with favorable expectations for the Two Sessions on the macro side and cost support still in place, the downside for HRC prices is limited. Next week, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to fluctuate rangebound within 3,380-3,530.