[SMM Analysis] End of Chinese New Year Holiday: Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Show a Downward Trend

After the Chinese New Year holiday, spot lithium carbonate prices fell by around 500 yuan/mt this week. Currently, the resumption of production at the mine-salt end of a certain top-tier enterprise has not only provided strong support for domestic lithium carbonate production but also offered some assistance to the supply levels for certain material plants. Under this influence, downstream material plants' demand for spot cargo may weaken. Both upstream and downstream players are generally adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, with limited transactions observed.

According to Chilean customs data, Chile exported 25,600 mt of lithium carbonate in January, up 27.5% MoM and 66.3% YoY. Among these, exports to China reached 19,100 mt, up 43% MoM and 94.7% YoY. Considering the shipping cycle, it is expected to arrive at Chinese ports in February-March.

Both domestic lithium carbonate production and overseas lithium carbonate import volumes have seen certain increases, leading to a significant rise in domestic lithium carbonate supply. The surplus in lithium carbonate has further intensified, making spot lithium carbonate prices more likely to fall than rise.