SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting: US Tariff Hike Impact and LME Aluminum Trends

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: US Implements 10% Tariff Hike, LME Aluminum Maintains Sideways Movement During Chinese New Year]

Macro side, the US tariff hike policy has been implemented. On February 1, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on goods from China. China has filed a complaint with the WTO dispute settlement mechanism and will take corresponding countermeasures. The US Fed paused interest rate cuts in January, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with widespread expectations.

Fundamentals side, supply-side disruptions have decreased. Domestic aluminum operating capacity in February is expected to remain stable. The average spot price of alumina in February is expected to drop significantly, which may lead to another pullback in aluminum costs, further weakening cost-side support.