SMM Morning Comment: Sluggish Alumina Transactions Ahead of Chinese New Year, Prices Expected to Decline Post-Holiday

Publicado: Jan 27, 2025 09:01
[SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Sluggish Alumina Transactions Ahead of Chinese New Year, Post-Holiday Prices Expected to Remain in a Declining Range] Recently, weekly operating rates for alumina have continued to fluctuate at highs, with no significant reduction in alumina supply observed so far. As the Chinese New Year break approaches, spot alumina transactions have been relatively sluggish. Overall, spot alumina transaction prices in north China have seen a noticeable narrowing in their decline, with current transaction prices nearing the theoretical marginal cost of alumina production in the region. Meanwhile, spot alumina prices in south China have accelerated their decline, and the price difference between north and south China has shown a narrowing trend during the week. Additionally, the cost support for alumina is gradually becoming evident; however, bauxite suppliers have slightly lowered their quotations, suggesting that alumina cost support may shift downward in the future. In the short term, no large-scale expectations for production cuts in alumina have been reported, and the spot alumina market is expected to remain relatively well-supplied. Post-holiday prices are expected to maintain a downward trend in the short term.

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