Industry Data Performs Well, Iron Ore Fluctuates Upward [SMM Commentary]

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures fluctuated upward. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 797 yuan/mt, up 1.92% for the day. Traders showed an increased willingness to sell. Steel mills remained cautious, purchasing as needed. The market trading atmosphere was average today. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 785-790 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, transaction prices for PB fines were around 810-815 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday. Industry data released today showed strong performance in HRC, with apparent demand seeing significant growth during the off-season, corroborated by robust HRC export orders. Coupled with ongoing macro news, reports in the afternoon indicated that a cyclone in Australia was affecting shipments from major mines in the region, driving a late-session rally in iron ore. Considering that pre-holiday restocking by steel mills is nearing completion and future demand may lack sustainability, this could suppress further increases in iron ore spot prices. In the short term, ore prices may fluctuate at high levels.