[SMM Analysis] The Final Stockpiling Rush Before Chinese New Year—Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Continue to Rise

This week, the price center of lithium carbonate spot transaction prices continued to rise, with a WoW increase of approximately 1,600 yuan/mt. Today, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price stood at 77,232 yuan/mt; battery-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 76,500-78,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 77,350 yuan/mt; industrial-grade lithium carbonate was priced at 73,700-74,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 74,200 yuan/mt. Considering that logistics are expected to halt next week, this week marks the final period for pre-holiday inventory stocking before the Chinese New Year.

Based on the current market transactions, some downstream material plants, due to unsigned long-term contracts, have a just-in-time procurement demand for lithium carbonate. Coupled with the ongoing sentiment for pre-holiday inventory stocking, inquiries and transactions in the market have been relatively active. Upstream smelters, under sustained cost pressure, have shown a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes for the 2025 long-term contract discount coefficient and spot cargo. Additionally, the relatively low inventory levels at upstream smelters and minimal shipment pressure have provided some support for price increases. Traders have also raised prices in response to the relatively active procurement period from downstream buyers. Overall, lithium carbonate spot prices continued to rise this week.

As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, some upstream smelters have begun production line maintenance, while most downstream material plants are maintaining normal operations. Considering the logistics halt during the holiday, lithium carbonate spot market transactions are expected to be minimal next week, and spot prices are likely to remain stable.