Driven by the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread and tight supply, spot premiums for SHFE copper have been rising steadily [SMM Weekly Review on SHFE Spot Copper].

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      Throughout the week, SHFE spot copper premiums climbed steadily, firmly standing above 100 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices also rose during the week, but a significant Shanghai-Guangdong price spread emerged in the spot market, causing some supplies to flow southward. This led to tight mainstream supply in the Shanghai region, prompting suppliers to raise premiums accordingly. According to SMM data, as of Thursday, Shanghai inventory decreased by 7,800 mt from Monday to 76,200 mt. However, actual transactions in Jiangsu were far less than in Shanghai, with smelters being pressured by downstream buyers, resulting in transactions mostly at double-digit premiums. Meanwhile, copper cathode long-term contracts remained difficult to settle, and smelters are expected to maintain a firm stance on quotes in the future. Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread is expected to persist, making it unlikely for SHFE spot copper premiums to decline. Additionally, with deliverable supplies tightening ahead of delivery and a continued low proportion of warehouse warrants, there is a need to watch for a potential surge in the price spread between months. Spot premiums are expected to remain relatively stable next week, and as downstream spring stockpiling demand is released, suppliers are unlikely to abandon their firm stance on quotes.

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