[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Leading Silicon Wafer Companies Generally Increase Production; Downstream Stockpiling Affects Battery Inventory Reduction

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SMM, January 7:

Silicon Wafer

Prices: The mainstream transaction price of monocrystalline silicon wafers M10 was 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece, while the price of N-type 18X silicon wafers was 1.1-1.18 yuan/piece. Yesterday, top-tier enterprises raised the quotations for all sizes, and several companies followed suit, but no actual transactions have occurred yet.

Production: As of January, the production schedule of silicon wafers shows that top-tier enterprises are generally increasing their operating rates, and production is expected to rise MoM.

Inventory: This week, silicon wafer inventory continued to decline. With downstream picking up goods, inventory saw a slight reduction. However, as pre-holiday stockpiling approaches its later stages, the downward trend in inventory has slowed.

Solar Cell

Prices: The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (efficiency of 23.2% and above) was 0.31 yuan/W. There was no trading volume in the PERC210 solar cell market. The transaction price of Topcon183 solar cells (efficiency of 25% and above) was around 0.28-0.29 yuan/W (with the highest quotation raised to 0.295); Topcon210RN solar cells were priced at 0.27-0.275 yuan/W (with the highest quotation raised to 0.295); Topcon210 solar cells were priced at 0.285-0.29 yuan/W (with the highest quotation raised to 0.3). The rise in silicon wafer prices has significantly pressured battery costs, leading to intense price negotiations for batteries recently. The price range in the Topcon battery market has started to widen. The mainstream price of HJT210 half-cell products was 0.36-0.38 yuan/W. After the increase in silicon wafer prices, the prices of PERC and Topcon batteries were pushed up. HJT battery prices remained stable due to a lack of transactions but are expected to rise next month.

Production: Most battery production bases plan to rotate shifts during the Chinese New Year holiday, with production lines continuing operations without shutdowns. A few battery manufacturers will suspend production for three weeks for line repairs, maintenance, and upgrades during the holiday period. However, the overall impact on supply is relatively small, with a production cut of 7.36 GW in January 2025.

Inventory: By month-end, battery manufacturers effectively reduced inventory, with inventory levels declining again, mainly driven by downstream stockpiling.

PV Film

Prices

PV-Grade EVA: The transaction price of PV-grade EVA was 10,600-10,750 yuan/mt. The domestic settlement price of PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-13,500 yuan/mt.

PV Film: The current mainstream price of 420g transparent EVA film was 5.29-5.46 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film was 5.67-6.05 yuan/m², 380g EPE film was 5.79-5.89 yuan/m², and 380g POE film was 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production: The planned production of PV-grade EVA in January was approximately 100,000 mt. The domestic planned production of PV film in January was about 350 million m².

Inventory: In January, module manufacturers reduced their production plans, leading to a decrease in film orders. Overall, January showed weak supply and demand, with petrochemical plant inventories remaining at relatively low levels.

Inverter

Prices: This week, the price range for inverters was as follows: 20 kW at 0.12-0.16 yuan/W, 50 kW at 0.11-0.15 yuan/W, 110 kW at 0.1-0.14 yuan/W, and 320 kW at 0.09-0.11 yuan/W. Inverter prices remained stable.

Supply and Demand: On the supply side, production remained stable and sufficient. In Q1, new order demand weakened significantly due to the off-season, leading to reduced shipments. However, procurement demand for centralized models in India continued.