[SMM Analysis] China's Ternary Cathode Material Production Began to Decline in December, with Further Increase in Industry Concentration at the Top
In December 2024, China's ternary cathode material production decreased by 6.5% MoM, up 7.2% YoY, with a cumulative YoY increase of 10.5% for the year. The overall operating rate in December was around 39%, showing a decline compared to October.
Regarding the proportion of different series, in December, the share of 5-series ternary materials was 22%, 6-series accounted for 31%, and 8-series made up 40%. Compared to the previous month, the share of 8-series ternary materials showed a slight increase, while the share of 5-series continued to decline, and the proportion of high-nickel materials kept rising.
From a market structure perspective, the production share of the top 3 (CR3) players this month was 45.9%, CR5 was 60.4%, and CR10 reached 79.4%, with market concentration showing a slight increase compared to November.
On the demand side, in December, domestic ternary power battery cell production also declined by approximately 6% compared to November. Battery companies reduced their year-end production schedules due to inventory control and weakening expectations for a rush for installations.
Looking ahead to the production schedule in January 2025, China's ternary material production is expected to decrease by 4.5% MoM. The market concentration among leading players is expected to further increase in January, with most manufacturers showing slight production reductions, except for a few companies whose production is expected to rise.
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