China Aluminum Market Weekly Report (Dec 26, 2024)

Overall, from a macro perspective, inflation data has led the market to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward the US Fed's future interest rate cut pace. Domestically, policies continue to release positive signals, which are favorable for the non-ferrous market in the long term. Fundamentals side, supply-side disruptions have decreased, spot alumina prices dropped back slightly but remain at high levels. Coupled with rising electricity prices during the dry season, aluminum costs remain supported. On the demand side, affected by the off-season, regional environmental protection-driven production restrictions, and earlier export rush to meet deadlines that overdrew future demand, downstream operating rates may continue to decline, with some small plants planning to take early holidays. Overall, macro factors are mixed, while fundamentals show aluminum prices falling below 20,000, stimulating downstream purchasing sentiment. However, under the off-season backdrop, demand is unlikely to see significant improvement, and short-term aluminum prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.