Aluminum Wheel Exports Expected to Continue Declining [SMM Analysis]

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SMM December 23, 2024:

According to customs data, China exported a total of 72,700 mt of aluminum wheels in November 2024, down 5% MoM and 6% YoY.

By export destination, the top five target countries for aluminum wheel exports in November were the US, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Thailand. The export volumes to these five countries accounted for 27%, 24%, 10%, 8%, and 5% of the total aluminum wheel exports, respectively. Compared to the previous period, the US remained the top destination this month, but the gap with Japan remained very narrow. Under the influence of events such as tariff increases, exports of wheels to the US are expected to continue declining, with Japan likely to become the new top destination.

Meanwhile, South Korea replaced Mexico as the third-largest export destination for aluminum wheels in November. SMM believes that most of the wheels exported to Mexico are assembled there and then enter the US in the form of vehicles. In recent years, the US has frequently imposed additional tariffs on Mexico, indirectly suppressing Mexico's demand for Chinese aluminum wheels, which may be the main reason for the decline in wheel exports to Mexico.

SMM believes that in recent years, the export volumes to the top five target countries for aluminum wheels have consistently accounted for over 60% of the total exports, indicating that China's overseas aluminum wheel market is overly reliant on a few target countries. With the rise of trade protectionism and successive tariff policies in recent years, the outlook for the overseas aluminum wheel market appears grim. Although some companies have recognized the risks and taken measures such as exploring other markets, shifting focus to the domestic market, and establishing overseas factories, the short-term aluminum wheel export market is expected to face significant challenges, with export volumes likely to continue declining.

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