SMM Analysis: China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports Drop 23.5% YoY in November, Decline Continues in December

[SMM Analysis: Net Imports of Primary Aluminum Fell 23.5% YoY in November; Continued Losses in December Hinder Import Growth]

SMM, December 21: On November 15, China announced the cancellation of aluminum semis export tax rebates effective December 1, which has widened the price spread between domestic and overseas markets. Currently, the import loss for primary aluminum in China remains over 2,000 yuan/mt, reducing the willingness of overseas suppliers to clear customs and ship to China. Some aluminum ingots stored at ports have been redirected to other countries and regions. Consequently, future net imports of primary aluminum in China may primarily rely on processing trade under feedstock and tolling arrangements, while Ordinary Trade is expected to decline due to the significant domestic-overseas aluminum price inversion. SMM forecasts that China's net imports of primary aluminum in December will show declines both YoY and MoM.