After the US Fed's Expected Interest Rate Cut, Hawkish Signals Emerge Late at Night; Copper Prices Are Expected to Be Under Pressure Today [SMM Copper Morning Comment Dec 19]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,008.5/mt, briefly bottomed at $9,005.5/mt at the beginning of the session, and then fluctuated within a wide range with its center moving upward, peaking at $9,049.5/mt near the close. It eventually settled at $9,045/mt, up 0.43%, with trading volume reaching 12,000 lots and open interest at 267,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2501 contract opened lower at 74,250 yuan/mt, briefly bottomed at 74,170 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, and then fluctuated upward, peaking at 74,540 yuan/mt during the session. It subsequently maintained wide fluctuations and finally closed at 74,450 yuan/mt, up 0.57%, with trading volume reaching 19,000 lots and open interest at 126,000 lots. Macro side, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, combined with rising oil prices, boosted copper prices. However, after the close, the US Fed's policy meeting delivered an expected 25-basis-point interest rate cut, but the statement hinted at a slower pace of future rate cuts. The dot plot showed that the forecast for next year's rate cuts was halved, from four times to two times, causing the US dollar index to surge sharply. Fundamentally, market transactions remained relatively quiet, with a tight supply and demand balance. In summary, while the US Fed delivered an expected 25-basis-point interest rate cut, it signaled a slower pace of future cuts, leading to a sharp rise in the US dollar index. Copper prices are expected to be under pressure today.