Trends and Developments in the High-Nickel Pig Iron Market

This week, the high-nickel pig iron market continued to show a slightly weak trend. The average price of SMM 8-12% high-nickel pig iron was reported at 946.4 yuan/nickel point (ex-factory price including tax), which was 5.8 yuan/nickel point lower than the average price last week. At the same time, the Indonesian NPI FOB index also showed a downward trend, decreasing by 0.4 US dollars/nickel point compared to last week. The overall trading atmosphere in the high-nickel pig iron market was relatively sluggish, and the price trend was not optimistic.

From the supply side, the output of smelting plants in East China has increased slightly, but the output of integrated stainless steel plants has declined slightly. Domestic total production remains at a relatively low level. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the increase in nickel ore mining at the end of the year, Indonesian high-nickel pig iron production continues to show growth expectations, posing certain pressure on the international market supply.

On the demand side, market trading sentiment was relatively sluggish this week. The proportion of long-term orders from leading enterprises increased, resulting in relatively limited spot trading volume in the market. Stainless steel spot prices showed signs of stabilization, social inventories began to decline slowly, and the decline in raw material prices slowed down. This series of phenomena indicate that the demand side still has limited support for high-nickel pig iron prices.

It is worth noting that the price difference between high-nickel pig iron and electrolytic nickel further expanded during the week, with an average discount of 324.2 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 20.2 yuan/nickel point compared to last week. This indicates that under the weak fundamentals of the stainless steel industry, raw material prices are under considerable pressure, and steel plants continue to explore lower raw material procurement prices. However, due to cost constraints, the overall decline in market prices is limited, and the market focus has only shifted slightly.

In terms of pure nickel, during the week, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reiterated its plan to restrict nickel production, aiming to raise commodity prices and protect domestic industries. This policy tendency has heightened market concerns about tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia in the future, leading to fluctuations and upward revisions in spot prices. Therefore, driven by favorable Indonesian policies, pure nickel prices are expected to continue to rise.

In summary, in the short term, the price decline of the high-nickel pig iron market is relatively limited due to cost support. However, as pure nickel prices continue to rise driven by favorable Indonesian policies, it is expected that the average discount between high-nickel pig iron and electrolytic nickel will further expand next week. Market participants should closely monitor Indonesian policy developments and changes in the demand for stainless steel industry to develop reasonable procurement and sales strategies.