Secondary Copper Supply Tightens: How Should Linyi Metal City Traders Respond? [SMM Analysis]

According to SMM data, from December 2 to December 6, the weekly average price of 1# copper cathode was 74,335 yuan/mt, up 0.48% WoW; the weekly average price of bare bright copper in East China Nonferrous Metal City was 68,980 yuan/mt, up 0.4% WoW; and the weekly average price of baled copper cable scrap (Cu＞99.5%) was 69,180 yuan/mt, up 0.4% WoW.

According to SMM data, the copper price center slightly rose this week, but secondary copper traders in Linyi Metal City reported difficulties in procurement this week. Due to a decline in overseas secondary copper supply, demand for domestic secondary copper surged rapidly, leading to a significant drop in procurement volume for secondary copper traders in Linyi Metal City this week. Additionally, due to the ongoing procurement demand from secondary copper rod plants, traders were forced to purchase at high prices to secure raw materials in time, resulting in a premium of 100 to 200 yuan for secondary copper in Linyi this week. Most secondary copper traders' in-plant inventories have been depleted, with only a few traders retaining inventories of fifty to sixty mt. According to SMM, the price inversion between secondary copper and secondary copper rods has severely impacted the production enthusiasm of secondary copper rod plants. Overall, the throughput of secondary copper in Linyi Metal City significantly declined this week due to reduced supply.

Looking ahead, the supply deficit of secondary copper is expected to be difficult to alleviate in the short term and may even worsen. Some traders indicated that they might first export US secondary copper to neighboring countries like Canada before re-exporting it to China, which could partially resolve the current predicament. However, secondary copper traders noted that the actual situation would depend on policy changes. Overall, as the year-end of 2024 approaches, most traders aim to maintain low inventories, coupled with the current tight supply, the throughput of secondary copper in Linyi Metal City is expected to continue declining.