November Aluminum Foil Exports May Exceed Expectations [SMM Analysis]

SMM, November 28, 2024: According to customs data, China's aluminum foil exports in October 2024 were 134,200 mt, up 8% MoM and 27% YoY. In terms of export destination countries, the top two destinations for aluminum foil exports in October remained Thailand and India, with Indonesia, the UAE, Mexico, and South Korea also ranking high. The structure of export destination countries did not show significant changes. In October, China exported a total of 76,200 mt of aluminum foil to the top 10 destination countries, accounting for 56.78% of the total.

SMM believes that the Chinese government's announcement to cancel the export tax rebate for aluminum semis starting December 1 has, to some extent, stimulated aluminum foil enterprises to ship in advance to avoid costs. This may drive November aluminum foil exports to exceed previous expectations. However, this advance shipment behavior is unsustainable, and from December onwards, some overseas aluminum foil orders will inevitably be lost, leading to a decline in aluminum foil export volumes.