October CRC Imports Surged, Exports Down 10.6% MoM [SMM Analysis]

Imports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in October 2024 were 167,000 mt, up 33.46% MoM and down 48.1% YoY. The total stainless steel imports from Indonesia in October were 131,900 mt (excluding scrap), down 47.75% YoY and up 49.04% MoM. By form, semi-manufactured products from Indonesia decreased in September, while cold rolled products continued to surge, increasing by nearly 52,200 mt, up 133.19% MoM. Currently, with the resumption of production at Indonesian stainless steel cold rolling mills, the shipment volume of 300 series cold rolled products has been dense. It is expected that the flow of Indonesian stainless steel to China will remain high in November.

Exports: According to SMM statistics, China's total stainless steel exports in October 2024 were 469,200 mt, down 10.6% MoM from September and up 19% YoY. By form, narrow strip, profile, and pipe remained stable, while plate, coil, and finished products showed a significant decline. Due to the upward fluctuation of stainless steel prices in October and the cyclical weakening of overseas purchases, overall export volume decreased. Additionally, recent large exchange rate fluctuations have weakened bulk commodities collectively due to risk aversion sentiment. By country, exports to South Korea, India, and Turkey saw significant declines, while exports to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia remained normal. Due to macro factors, including the expansion of overseas trade frictions and increased trade barriers such as tariffs, it is expected that stainless steel export pressure will increase significantly in November, with export volumes in November and Q4 showing a substantial decline.