Rare Earth Market Trading Atmosphere Remains Quiet: Future Trends of Raw Material Prices? [SMM Analysis]

Last week, rare earth market prices showed a fluctuating trend. The price of Pr-Nd oxide has adjusted to 419,000-421,000 yuan/mt, while the price of Pr-Nd alloy has dropped to 518,000-522,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the price of dysprosium oxide has decreased to 1,700-1,710 yuan/kg, and terbium oxide has fallen to 5,800-5,860 yuan/kg.

Supply side, the quotations for Pr-Nd product raw materials remain cautious, with enterprises focusing more on price stability during procurement. The prices of medium-heavy rare earths have been affected by the news of the reopening of the Myanmar border port soon, showing a downward trend. However, as of the afternoon of November 15, the border has not yet been opened, and the specific lockdown period is uncertain, adding to market uncertainty, which may lead to temporarily stable rare earth prices.

Weak end-use demand is the main reason for the sluggish upstream raw material market prices. Currently, downstream magnetic material enterprises' order growth is limited, mainly driven by some large enterprises in the new energy sector, while the transaction activity of other small and medium-sized enterprises remains low, with insufficient market expectations. These magnetic material enterprises adopt a restock-as-needed strategy, with an overall cautious procurement attitude.

With November already halfway through, the downstream foreign trade market may see an increase in procurement quantities due to the impact of tariff hikes and the need for pre-Christmas stocking. This increase in demand may potentially drive a rebound in rare earth prices.