Longs Exit, SHFE Zinc Fluctuate Downward [SMM Zinc Morning Comment Nov 18]

Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $2,939/mt. In the early session, LME zinc fluctuated around the daily moving average. During European trading hours, LME zinc briefly dipped, then shorts took profits and exited, causing LME zinc to fluctuate upward, reaching a high of $3,029/mt. Subsequently, shorts attacked at the high level, leading to a "V" shaped reversal. During the night session, the focus shifted downward to fluctuate around $2,950/mt, finally closing up at $2,953.5/mt, an increase of $20.5/mt or 0.7%. Trading volume increased to 14,636 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,797 lots to 247,000 lots. Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a long upper shadow candlestick, with various moving averages above forming resistance. Last Friday, LME inventory increased by 6,450 mt to 248,450 mt, an increase of 2.67%, marking an increase in LME inventory. Last Friday, China announced to adjust the export tax rebate policy for aluminum and copper metal products. After a brief surge in sentiment due to reduced overseas supply, zinc prices returned to fluctuating rangebound.

Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2412 contract opened with a gap up at 24,810 yuan/mt. In the early session, longs took profits and exited, causing SHFE zinc to plunge, reaching a low of 24,400 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the focus slightly shifted upward to fluctuate around 24,500 yuan/mt. During this period, it attempted to break above but was blocked near the daily moving average, finally closing down at 24,475 yuan/mt, a decrease of 205 yuan/mt or 0.83%. Trading volume decreased to 107,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,157 lots to 97,498 lots. Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 20-day moving average above forming resistance and the 60-day moving average below providing support. Last Friday, China announced to adjust the export tax rebate policy, causing market concerns about reduced domestic exports and potential trade disputes. Longs exited to avoid risks, leading to an overall weak performance in non-ferrous metals.