SMM Analysis On China October Secondary Lead Production And November Forecast

In October 2024, the production of secondary crude lead increased slightly, up 3.05% MoM, but down 34.97% YoY. The production of secondary refined lead increased 3.78% MoM, but decreased 37.53% YoY. In early October, smelters in Hunan and Guangxi halted production for maintenance. In mid-October, several cities in Hebei province initiated a level II emergency response to heavy pollution weather, causing some local smelters to stop production. Smelters in Henan were also affected by environmental protection-related controls due to weather pollution. In late October, some large smelters in Anhui province halted production for maintenance. Meanwhile, medium and large secondary lead smelters that resumed production in September and ramped up production in October contributed significantly to the increase, such as Inner Mongolia Taiding, Shanxi Yichen Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., Anhui Lukong Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., and Camel Group (Anhui) Renewable Resources Co., Ltd. Overall, the production of secondary lead increased slightly by about 10,000 mt in October.

Entering November, as the weather in the north gets colder and heating starts, heavy pollution weather is expected to occur frequently, and environmental protection-related controls may continue to affect secondary lead production. Coupled with fluctuating lead prices, tight raw material supply, and relatively high prices, some smelters expect production cuts in November. According to SMM statistics, the production of secondary refined lead in November may remain stable or decrease slightly.