International Oil Prices Plunged, Copper Prices Dragged Down [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened at $9,541.5/mt overnight, initially fluctuated lower to $9,530/mt, then rose to $9,586/mt during the session, and finally dropped back slightly to close at $9,556/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 14,000 lots, and open interest was 275,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2412 contract opened at 76,620 yuan/mt overnight, initially dipped to 76,420 yuan/mt, then fluctuated rangebound to rise to 76,780 yuan/mt during the session, and finally dropped back slightly to close at 76,620 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. Trading volume reached 27,000 lots, and open interest was 152,000 lots. Macro side, Israel's retaliatory strike on Iranian forces bypassed oil and nuclear facilities, avoiding energy supply disruptions, leading to a crude oil plunge of over 6%. Additionally, no positive news for base metals emerged from the BRICS summit, dragging down copper prices. Fundamentally, supply side, domestic copper cathode arrivals were limited, causing a short-term tightening trend in major consuming provinces. Demand side, copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend within a range, with downstream just-in-time procurement and spot premiums similar to last week. However, domestic copper cathode social inventories fell again, mainly due to fewer domestic arrivals. As of Monday, October 28, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide decreased by 9,500 mt from last Thursday to 210,000 mt, but total inventories were 150,000 mt higher compared to the same period last year. Price side, before more economic data is released, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend today.