Post-holiday aluminum ingot continues destocking, with fewer arrivals tightening spot discounts [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Oct 15]

SMM, Oct 15: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,780 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,815 yuan/mt and a low of 20,705 yuan/mt, closing at 20,800 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.38%. On Monday, LME aluminum opened at $2,600.5/mt, with a high of $2,604/mt and a low of $2,597/mt, closing at $2,604/mt, up $8/mt, an increase of 0.31%.

Summary: Macro front, Monday's data showed the US economy only moderately slowed, aligning with expectations for moderate interest rate cuts. US Fed Governor Waller stated that the Fed should be more cautious about rate cuts than at the September meeting, and the US dollar index rebounded. Domestically, on the 12th, the Ministry of Finance released a package of incremental policies, and the MIIT introduced more measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, helping enterprises explore markets and unleash vitality. Fundamentals side, expectations for production cuts in Yunnan in Q4 decreased, along with the release of some new and resumed capacity, leading to continued growth in the domestic aluminum market supply side. Cost side, the spot alumina market remains tightly balanced, making it difficult for domestic aluminum costs to fall. Demand side, downstream operating rates are generally stable, with inventories falling back to pre-holiday levels, and market circulation remains tight. Overall, the aluminum market's supply-demand mismatch is not prominent, and under the backdrop of domestic and international positives and rising costs, a short-term fluctuating trend is expected. Future attention should focus on domestic consumption conditions and changes in international macro sentiment.