As of Thursday, October 10, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 4,700 mt from Tuesday to 203,600 mt, and increased by 38,100 mt compared to pre-holiday levels. The post-holiday inventory accumulation in the first week was lower than last year's 44,200 mt. Compared to Tuesday, most regions nationwide saw an increase in inventory, with only a slight decrease in Tianjin. Total inventory was 86,300 mt higher than last year's 117,300 mt, with Shanghai 41,500 mt higher, Jiangsu 11,400 mt higher, and Guangdong 34,900 mt higher than the same period last year.
Specifically, Shanghai's inventory increased by 4,200 mt from Tuesday to 127,200 mt, while Jiangsu's inventory remained unchanged. Although imported copper continued to arrive, domestic copper arrivals were limited, and with decent consumption in east China, the inventory accumulation in east China was minimal. Guangdong's inventory slightly increased by 700 mt to 48,000 mt. During the National Day holiday, Guangdong's inventory increased significantly, but after the holiday, as downstream resumed production, the accumulation slowed. Tianjin's inventory decreased due to downstream resumption of production.
Looking ahead, domestic copper supply is expected to decrease further due to production cuts at domestic smelters, and the supplement from imported copper is also limited, leading to an expected decline in total supply. On the demand side, with copper prices falling and limited growth in secondary copper rod supply, copper cathode consumption is expected to continue increasing. Therefore, we anticipate a scenario of reduced supply and increased demand next week, with weekly inventories likely to decrease again.
