Overnight, LME aluminum surged over 3%. In the short term, SHFE aluminum may hover at highs. [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,295 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,345 yuan/mt and a low of 20,225 yuan/mt, closing at 20,315 yuan/mt, up 165 yuan/mt, a rise of 0.81%. LME aluminum opened the previous trading day at $2,535/mt, with a high of $2,622/mt and a low of $2,532/mt, closing at $2,621.5/mt, up $83/mt, a rise of 3.27%.
Summary: On the macro front, since the US Fed's rate cut, the domestic central bank announced four major monetary policies, including interest rate cuts, lowering the reserve requirement ratio, and reducing the mortgage rate on existing home loans, indicating the government's recognition of the urgency to eliminate deflation risks and support economic growth, creating a favorable macro resonance. On the fundamentals, the domestic aluminum market supply side slightly increased. With the National Day holiday approaching, considering the holiday production schedule of downstream sectors, there is an expectation of a temporary weakening in domestic downstream consumption. After the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory may see a slight accumulation. However, from the medium and long-term downstream production schedule, October consumption remains in the industry peak season, with demand mainly stable. Overall, given the short-term favorable macro atmosphere and stable fundamentals, the aluminum market is expected to hover at highs in the short term.