The supply and demand remained weak, SHFE zinc may fluctuate upward [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,009.5/mt. Initially, SHFE zinc fluctuated around the daily average, reaching a high of $3,040/mt. Subsequently, LME zinc fluctuated downward below the daily average. During European trading hours, bulls increased positions, causing LME zinc to slightly rise to fluctuate around $3,000/mt. However, as bulls took profits and exited, LME zinc's focus shifted downward to a low of $2,980/mt. Later, LME zinc fluctuated upward to $3,025/mt. Entering the night session, LME zinc plunged below the daily average, closing down at $2,988.5/mt, a decrease of $22/mt, or 0.73%. Trading volume increased to 107,000 lots, and open interest increased by 2,429 lots to 242,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with support from various moving averages below. LME social inventory decreased by 1,725 mt to 255,225 mt, a reduction of 0.67%. Current international local disputes remain tense, with the Lebanon-Israel conflict intensifying. The U.S. Congress passed a temporary funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. It is expected that LME zinc may maintain a fluctuating trend today.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2411 contract opened at 24,445 yuan/mt. Initially, bulls increased positions, causing SHFE zinc to fluctuate upward above the daily average, reaching a high of 24,635 yuan/mt. Subsequently, as bulls took profits and exited, SHFE zinc plunged downward below the daily average. During the session, bears increased positions, causing SHFE zinc to fluctuate downward, reaching a low of 24,400 yuan/mt at the end of the session. It closed down at 24,410 yuan/mt, a decrease of 55 yuan/mt, or 0.22%. Trading volume decreased to 84,487 lots, and open interest decreased by 932 lots to 112,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, with the upper Bollinger Band forming resistance and various moving averages providing support below. Currently, the supply side remains tight, and the demand side has not shown significant improvement. However, entering the traditional peak season and the real estate favorable policies boosting long-term demand, SHFE zinc may fluctuate upward today.