The US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value hit a 15-month low, LME zinc is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend today [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,873.5/mt. Initially, it fluctuated rangebound around the daily average line with a range of $30/mt. During European trading hours, it fluctuated downward below the daily average, briefly centering around $2,845/mt, and dipped to $2,833.5/mt. Subsequently, as shorts reduced positions, LME zinc fluctuated upward above the daily average, reaching a high of $2,894.5/mt. It then fluctuated slightly around $2,885/mt, closing at $2,885/mt, an increase of $18/mt or 0.63%. Trading volume decreased to 74,378 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,038 lots to 238,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a long lower shadow bullish candlestick, with resistance from the 5-day moving average above and support from the 40/60-day moving averages below. LME social inventory increased by 1,900 mt to 258,050 mt, a rise of 0.74%. The US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 47, lower than the expected 48.5 and the lowest in 15 months, marking the third consecutive month of contraction. Meanwhile, US Fed officials indicated that more rate cuts might be needed in the coming year. LME zinc is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend today.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2411 contract opened higher at 23,600 yuan/mt. Initially, with longs increasing positions, SHFE zinc traded above the daily average, reaching a high of 23,725 yuan/mt. Subsequently, SHFE zinc attempted to move downward but was driven by longs above the daily average. During the session, as longs reduced positions, SHFE zinc moved downward in a stepwise manner, reaching a low of 23,575 yuan/mt. By the end of the session, it fluctuated rangebound around 23,590 yuan/mt, closing at 23,610 yuan/mt, an increase of 130 yuan/mt or 0.55%. Trading volume decreased to 59,156 lots, and open interest increased by 5,889 lots to 107,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a long upper shadow bullish candlestick, with resistance from the 5-day moving average above and support from the 10/20-day moving averages below. Currently, domestic inventory increases slightly, but demand remains weak. Coupled with the US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI being lower-than-expected, SHFE zinc is expected to continue fluctuating today.