Pressure on solar wafer and solar cell inventory accumulation remains【SMM PV Morning Meeting Summary】

SMM, September 13: Silica prices remained stable this week. Although some silicon metal producers in south-west China have indicated plans to stop restocking raw materials like silica after current stocks run out and may shut down furnaces earlier than usual, some small silicon enterprises in north-west China are preparing to purchase small batches of raw materials for future resumption of production. Currently, the ex-factory prices for low-grade silica in Yunnan range from 340 to 360 yuan/mt. In Inner Mongolia, high-grade silica ex-factory prices range from 380 to 390 yuan/mt. In Jiangxi, high-grade silica ex-factory prices are between 440 and 480 yuan/mt. In Guizhou, high-grade silica ex-factory prices range from 300 to 330 yuan/mt.

Supply and Demand

Supply: Silica production remains normal, but the overall downstream demand for silica is expected to remain weak, leaving supply relatively ample.

Demand: While demand for silica is expected to weaken in south-west China, some northern silicon enterprises are preparing to purchase raw materials for resumption of production, leading to a slight increase in purchasing demand.

Silicon Metal

Prices: This week's silicon metal prices remained stable. Yesterday, the ex-factory prices of above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China ranged from 11,700 to 11,800 yuan/mt, and 421# silicon (for silicone use) ranged from 12,600 to 12,800 yuan/mt. The silicon market is focused on inquiries, with mainstream spot prices remaining stable amid a standoff between upstream and downstream.

Production: SMM statistics showed that China's silicon metal production in August decreased by 13,000 mt, down 2.7% MoM, but increased by 153,000 mt, up 47.8% YoY. Although there were some minor reductions and shutdowns expected in September, overall supply is expected to remain high.

Inventory: Social inventory: SMM statistics indicated that as of September 6, the total national social inventory of silicon metal was 476,000 mt, down 3,000 mt WoW. Of this, ordinary warehouse inventory was 131,000 mt, up 1,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouse inventory (including unregistered warehouse warrants) was 344,000 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW.

Solar Wafers

Prices: The mainstream transaction prices for monocrystalline PV wafers M10 were 1.1-1.2 yuan/piece, and the prices for N-type 18X PV wafers were 1.08-1.15 yuan/piece. This week, wafer prices remained relatively stable with limited market transactions post-quotation, with leading manufacturers sticking to their quoted prices for 183 wafers.

Production: This week, an additional leading enterprise announced plans for production cuts, expected to affect September's production by about 1GW.

Inventory: Solar wafer inventory continued to accumulate this week with limited market transactions.

Solar Cells

Prices: Current prices for high-efficiency PERC 182 solar cells (23.2% efficiency and above) are 0.28-0.28 yuan/W; PERC 210 solar cells are priced around 0.28-0.29 yuan/W; Topcon 182 solar cells (25% efficiency and above) are priced around 0.275-0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN solar cells are priced at 0.27-0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210 solar cells are priced at 0.28-0.29 yuan/W.

Production: In September, the planned production of Topcon solar cells in China is 44.26GW, PERC solar cells is 5.66GW, HJT solar cells is 0.92GW, and BC production is 2.44GW.

Inventory: Current specialized battery makers still have high inventory levels of 15-20 days, with 18X series inventories remaining substantial.

Prices
EVA/POE PV-grade materials
PV-grade EVA held steady at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt, while domestic delivery-to-factory price for PV-grade POE was around 12,500-13,500 yuan/mt. There is still a risk of prices falling further.
PV film
The current mainstream prices for film are: 420g transparent EVA film at 5.46-5.67 yuan/sqm, 420g white EVA film at 5.99-6.36 yuan/sqm, 380g EPE film at 6.46-6.65 yuan/sqm, and 380g POE film at 8.74-8.93 yuan/sqm. Prices are temporarily stable.
Production
In September, planned production for PV-grade EVA was above 100,000 mt. The planned production for PV film in September was around 470 million sqm.
Inventory
With the increase in production of PV-grade EVA and the decline in trading volume, inventory increased. Film factories also saw an increase in in-plant inventory due to holiday preparations.