Inventory Decline Continues as Consumption Improves [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Futures: Last night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,190 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 19,325 yuan/mt and a low of 19,155 yuan/mt before closing at 19,320 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt, a 0.55% increase. On Monday, LME aluminum opened at $2,344.5/mt, reached a high of $2,365/mt and a low of $2,326.5/mt before closing at $2,362.5/mt, up $21/mt, a 0.90% increase.

Summary: On the macro side, a rate cut by the US Fed in September is almost certain, China's August CPI year-on-year rate was higher than the previous value but below expectations, and China's August PPI year-on-year rate was below expectations. On the fundamentals side, recent supply has been relatively stable. The demand side is gradually shifting towards peak season, with domestic spot market transactions improving, and consumption starting to recover, leading to a decline in social inventory. Yesterday, China released the "National Carbon Emission Trading Market Coverage for Cement, Steel, and Aluminum Industry Work Plan (Exposure Draft)," sparking market concerns about the supply side and rising costs in the aluminum industry, providing some support to aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Continued attention is needed on macro changes and the sustainability of downstream aluminum consumption.