Primary aluminum production slightly increased YoY, aluminum ingot inventory continues destocking [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

SMM, Sep 6: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,270 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,385 yuan/mt, a low of 19,250 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,300 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.55%. On Thursday, LME aluminum opened at $2,392/mt, with a high of $2,410/mt, a low of $2,363/mt, and closed at $2,378/mt, down $21.5/mt, a decrease of 0.90%.
On the macro side, a US Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and China continues to boost consumption. On the fundamentals side, supply remained stable MoM, with a slight increase YoY. The demand side is entering the traditional peak season, with consumption gradually recovering and aluminum ingot social inventory starting to destock. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to still have upside potential, with attention needed on macro changes and the sustainability of downstream aluminum consumption.