July Copper Anode Imports Remained Low, Significant Growth Unlikely in the Future [SMM Analysis]

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 70,700 mt of copper anode in July 2024, up 5.63% MoM but down 17.65% YoY. From January to July 2024, the cumulative imports were 535,000 mt, down 16.63% YoY.

By country, in July 2024, China imported 32,700 mt of copper anode from Zambia, accounting for 46.20% of the total imports, down 18.71% MoM and 3.16% YoY. Imports from Chile were 12,500 mt, accounting for 17.72%, up 703.65% MoM and 13.13% YoY. Imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo were 10,000 mt, accounting for 14.16%, down 7.11% MoM and 38.63% YoY.

In July, China's copper anode imports only slightly rebounded MoM and remained at a low level overall. SMM attributes this mainly to the instability of shipping schedules in Africa and the losses in the SHFE/LME price ratio during May and June. Additionally, maintenance at copper anode refineries in the Democratic Republic of Congo during May and June led to a decline in imports from that region.

Looking ahead, the SHFE/LME price ratio showed some recovery and profitability opportunities from June to August. Coupled with increased demand as the domestic copper anode market tightens, this may drive up imports of scrap copper anode from Europe and Asia. However, the shortage of copper concentrate makes it difficult for imports of copper anode produced with mines to increase. Furthermore, Africa is in its seasonal peak export period, and the priority given to cold chain shipments has affected shipping efficiency. In summary, copper anode imports in August are unlikely to see significant growth.