Concerns about overseas economic recession eased, and aluminum inventory reduction strengthened aluminum prices [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary]

Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2409 contract opened at 19,205 yuan/mt overnight, with a high of 19,350 yuan/mt, a low of 19,145 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,350 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.08%. On Thursday, LME 3M aluminum opened at $2,325/mt, with a high of $2,370/mt, a low of $2,321.5/mt, and closed at $2,356/mt, up $29/mt, an increase of 1.25%.

Summary: On the macro front, U.S. employment data and retail data performed well, alleviating concerns about economic recession and warming the macro atmosphere, leading to bears/shorts in non-ferrous metals exiting their positions. On the fundamental side, domestic aluminium supply has basically peaked, with only sporadic resumption of production expected in regions like Guizhou and Sichuan in the future. Downstream consumption may improve under the traditional peak season and domestic economic stimulus policy. The turning point for aluminum social inventory reduction may appear, reducing the supply-demand mismatch on the fundamental side. Additionally, recent strong fluctuations in alumina prices provided strong support on the cost side for aluminium. SMM expects that aluminum prices may bottom out and show a rebound trend. Continued attention should be paid to aluminum consumption and aluminum social inventory changes.