SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Aug 9)

SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Aug 9)

Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract for 2409 opened at 18,900 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 19,080 yuan/mt and a low of 18,900 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,050 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt, or 0.55%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,272/mt, hit a high of $2,285/mt and a low of $2,256/mt, and closed at $2,284/mt, up $11/mt, or 0.48%.

Summary: On the macro level, the Chinese government continues to boost the domestic economy, global liquidity is gradually increasing, and regional conflicts are escalating, providing upward momentum for aluminum prices. On the fundamental side, aluminum production in July was 3.683 million mt, and operating capacity in August is gradually stabilizing with limited subsequent increases, indicating that supply is gradually peaking. In August, downstream aluminum consumption shows signs of stabilizing and recovering, and aluminum ingot inventories are expected to peak gradually. In the short term, both macro and fundamental factors are converging, and aluminum prices may bottom out.