SMM Analysis: The tightening trend at the mining end has been transmitted to the smelting end, resulting in a decrease in domestic tin ingot production in July.

According to the SMM survey data, domestic refined tin production in July reached 15,925 mt, a decrease of 2.21% compared to the previous month and an increase of 39.75% compared to the same period last year. Further investigation into the production situation in various regions reveals that in Yunnan, a refined tin smelter remains shut down due to handover issues. Although some producers affected by environmental protection inspections in June have resumed normal production and their output has rebounded, the tightness of mineral resources has impacted the smelting process. Specifically, some smelters have had to adjust their production plans and reduce scheduled production due to raw material shortages. Similarly, in Jiangxi, some smelters are facing challenges in raw material supply, making it difficult for them to maintain current production levels, resulting in a slight decline in output. In Inner Mongolia, companies have maintained a normal production pace, while in Guangxi, a company saw a significant drop in tin ingot production due to a shutdown for maintenance, but production is expected to resume in early August. Smelters in Anhui and other regions maintained stable production in July. Looking ahead, we expect most smelters in Yunnan to maintain their current production levels or slightly reduce output in August. Before the Wa State tin mine in Myanmar is unblocked, local smelters will find it difficult to effectively replenish their raw material inventories, making it hard for Yunnan smelters to significantly increase production. Similarly, most companies in Jiangxi are unlikely to see production growth in August. In summary, we expect national tin ingot production in August 2024 to reach 16,245 mt, an increase of 2.01% compared to the previous month and an increase of 52.95% compared to the same period last year.