June Chrome Ore Imports Reached 1.8449 Million mt, Supply and Demand Were Both Strong, Prices Fell from Highs [SMM Analysis]

According to Chinese customs statistics, in June 2024, China's chrome ore imports reached 1.8449 million mt, up 33,200 mt MoM (+1.83% MoM), up 338,400 mt YoY (+22.46% YoY). In June, China imported 1.5167 million mt of chrome ore from South Africa. From January to June 2024, China's total chrome ore imports were 10.3544 million mt, up 2.0992 million mt YoY (+25.43% YoY).

According to SMM, domestic chrome ore imports remained high in June, with powder ore imports exceeding 10 million mt in H1 2024, and annual imports are expected to approach 20 million mt. Domestic high-carbon ferrochrome production exceeded 800,000 mt in June. With strong supply and demand, as of June 28, national port inventories of chrome ore remained stable at 2.6802 million mt. According to SMM, global chrome ore port clearance volume in June was 2.6412 million mt, and July port clearance volume by July 25 was 2.2221 million mt. Although slightly down from previous highs, port clearance volume remained high, and chrome ore supply is not expected to decline significantly in the near future. Recently, with the August high-carbon ferrochrome bidding price dropping by 100 yuan/mt (Cr50%), high-carbon ferrochrome manufacturers, already facing losses, further reduced their acceptance of high-priced chrome ore, leading to a decline in chrome ore prices. However, the overall operating rate of high-carbon ferrochrome only slightly decreased, making it difficult for chrome ore demand to significantly reduce. Additionally, with chrome ore scheduled to arrive before the end of September maintaining high costs, the short-term decline in chrome ore spot prices is expected to be limited. In the medium and long term, the issue of high-carbon ferrochrome oversupply has not been resolved, and chrome ore prices somewhat depend on the current high production of high-carbon ferrochrome. For the domestic market, the oversupply of chrome elements means that chrome ore prices still face the risk of decline.