Review of PV-grade EVA market situation in June

In June, the overall price of PV-grade EVA resin showed a downward trend, with transactions at the beginning of the month being significantly better than those at the end. This reflected the film producers' expectation for low-price purchases, but later in the month, they anticipated further price reductions, leading to concentrated purchasing activity in early June, while actual transactions in the latter part of the month were sluggish, even extending into early July. Throughout June, the market sentiment was sluggish. Film manufacturers, leveraging their relatively high inventory and the pressure of negotiating orders from module manufacturers, engaged in price negotiations with petrochemical producers. The petrochemical producers were forced to make concessions, gradually lowering the actual transaction price to around 10,000 yuan/mt. This trend continued until the end of June. As of July 12, the actual average transaction price had dropped to around 9,500 yuan/mt. Despite current inventory levels approaching a low point, this has not prevented petrochemical producers from needing to continue making concessions.

In July, petrochemical producers continued their strategy of switching production, adjusting their scheduled production plans to manufacture EVA 2806, EVA 1803, and other materials, thereby reducing the scheduled production of PV-grade EVA resin. Based on the companies' expectations at the beginning of the month, the scheduled production and orders in July might not be as strong as in June. If we assume that July continues to perform as it did in June, with a consumption of 125,000 mt of PV-grade EVA resin, the optimistic scenario would see a scheduled production of 80,000 mt of PV-grade EVA resin, while the pessimistic scenario would see a scheduled production of 60,000 mt. In the optimistic scenario, the sales of PV-grade EVA resin are expected to reach 130,000 mt, while in the pessimistic scenario, the sales are expected to be 110,000 mt.

Therefore, it can be roughly inferred that, in a pessimistic scenario, the minimum inventory of petrochemical producers will be reduced to 67,000 mt; in an optimistic scenario, the minimum inventory will be reduced to 27,000 mt, which is equivalent to 7-16 days of supply. At that time, their inventory will most likely be less than half a month, and most petrochemical producers (including leading companies) may achieve "zero inventory." Affected by the significant reduction in supply, petrochemical producers will regain control over pricing. Under cost-saving measures, they will control the price trend of EVA resin, a halt in the price decline will also occur, and cable-grade EVA and foaming-grade EVA will also experience a slight rebound.