SMM Analysis Of China Overseas Metallurgical Grade Alumina Production In May And Forecast For June

In May 2024 (31 days), the production of overseas metallurgical grade alumina was approximately 4.88 million mt, up 1.8% YoY. The global alumina capacity utilization rate was 80.2%, up 0.1% MoM, but down 0.1% YoY. The cumulative production from January to May 2024 reached 24.036 million mt, up 2.1% YoY.

By region:

Australia: The production for May was 1.527 million mt, down 5.2% YoY. The decline mainly came from Alcoa's Kwinana refinery and Rio Tinto's Yarwun refinery. Alcoa announced at the beginning of 2024 that the Kwinana alumina refinery would completely shut down by the end of the year, with May production down about 34% YoY and the capacity utilization rate dropping to around 44%. Additionally, a natural gas pipeline explosion in Queensland in March 2024 affected Rio Tinto's Gladstone operations, with the Yarwun alumina refinery's capacity utilization rate at about 73%.

South America: Production increased by 9.6% YoY to 955,600 mt, mainly contributed by Brazil's Alumar alumina refinery. The refinery underwent maintenance shutdown in Q2 2023 and resumed normal production in Q3. In May 2024, the production was approximately 300,000 mt, with a capacity utilization rate of about 93%.

India: In May, output increased by 6.9% YoY, mainly from Vedanta's alumina refinery in Lanjigarh. Vedanta announced in early April 2024 that the plant's capacity would be increased from 2 million mt to 3.5 million mt, with plans to expand to 5 million mt in the future. SMM estimates that the plant's May output increased by 43,000 mt YoY and expects further growth in the future.

Indonesia: Production capacity is growing rapidly, with April output up 22.2% YoY. This is mainly due to the capacity expansion of Nanshan Aluminum's alumina refinery on Bintan Island, Indonesia. An SMM survey shows that the plant, which started production in 2022 with a capacity of 1 million mt, plans to add another 2 million mt in 2024. Current output is close to the nameplate capacity, with April output up 53% YoY.

June forecast: According to SMM statistics, the total overseas metallurgical-grade alumina output in June 2024 is expected to be 4.7266 million mt, up 1.7% YoY. The average capacity utilization rate is about 81%, flat MoM, and slightly down by 0.2% YoY.