PV Industry Chain Experiences Price Drop, Operating Rate to Fall

Polysilicon: Last week, the mainstream transaction prices for P-type dense polysilicon were 34-38 yuan/kg, and for N-type polysilicon, 40-44 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline last week, but the rate of decline has slowed. Many manufacturers are experiencing losses, with some first- and second-tier companies cut production, providing some support for prices. However, it should be noted that polysilicon is still in a state of inventory accumulation, and SMM believes that there are no conditions for a price rebound in the short term.

Silicon Wafers: The mainstream transaction prices for domestic monocrystalline silicon wafers (182mm) were 1.15-1.30 yuan/piece, and for N-type 182mm wafers, 1.1-1.2 yuan/piece. Silicon wafer prices continued to drop sharply last week. The losses for silicon wafers based on cash cost have further increased, and downstream purchases are limited.

Solar Cells: Current prices for high-efficiency PERC 182 solar cells (23.2% efficiency and above) are 0.30-0.32 yuan/W; PERC 210 solar cells are priced at 0.32-0.33 yuan/W; Topcon 182 solar cells (24.7% efficiency and above) are priced at 0.28-0.31 yuan/W; and Topcon 210 solar cells are priced at 0.35-0.36 yuan/W. Solar cell prices continued to decline last week due to insufficient demand. High inventory levels at solar cell companies are being reduced slowly. Although some solar cell and module manufacturers have gradually lowered their operating rates, the market remains in a state of oversupply. Solar cell companies are fully in a loss-making situation.

PV Modules: Last week, the mainstream transaction prices for PERC 182mm modules were 0.74-0.82 yuan/W, for PERC 210mm modules 0.76-0.84 yuan/W, for N-type 182mm modules 0.8-0.87 yuan/W, and for N-type 210mm modules 0.84-0.88 yuan/W. The price drop in the upstream industry chain has resulted in a sharp drop in module prices last week, with a decrease of 0.02-0.05 yuan. The price range is very large, and the price gap between high and low-efficiency products has widened again, intensifying competition among companies. Prices are expected to continue to decline in the future. Module companies are expected to reduce production in May, with further reductions in production schedules expected in June.

End-users: From May 13, 2024, to May 19, 2024, SMM statistics show that domestic companies won a total of 23 PV module projects, with bid prices concentrated in the range of 0.86-0.87 yuan/W; the weighted average price for the week was 0.9 yuan/W, with a total procurement capacity of 2,152.41MW. In April, the newly installed PV capacity in China was 14.37GW, mainly driven by distributed installations. Currently, the progress of domestic distributed projects is good, while centralized projects have seen delays or cancellations. Although the module bidding market was active in April and May, with a rebound in the volume of finalized bids, overall downstream demand remains relatively flat. The peak season for European demand has yet to materialize, and U.S. procurement demand is fluctuating due to policy impacts. Demand in emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa is relatively strong.

PV Glass: Last week, the transaction prices for 3.2mm PV glass slightly decreased. As of now, the price for 2.0mm single-layer coated glass is 17.5-18.5 yuan/square meter, and for 3.2mm single-layer coated glass, it is 26.0-27.0 yuan/square meter. The mainstream transaction prices are 18.0 and 26.5 yuan/square meter, respectively, with a slight decrease in the price of 3.2mm glass. The demand for modules has recently started to weaken, while the supply of glass continues to increase, gradually amplifying the impact of oversupply in the spot market. Glass prices are expected to decline, but the extent of the decline is likely to be limited due to recent cost-side support.

High-purity Quartz Sand: Last week, high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable. Currently, the prices for domestic inner layer sand are 190,000-210,000 yuan/mt, for middle layer sand 100,000-130,000 yuan/mt, and for outer layer sand 24,000-50,000 yuan/mt. Last week, downstream companies mainly restocked as needed, with quiet transaction. The willingness of quartz sand companies to cut offers has weakened due to the recovery in transactions, and prices have remained stable.

EVA: Prices continued to decline and buying remained poor. Current film orders are weak, module inventory is being reduced, and the prices of transparent films are falling. The prices of POE films and EPE films are also weak, while the demand for double-sided low-acid EVA is strengthening. POE granule prices have remained stable. Significant price changes are expected next week.

Solar Inverters: Last week, the price range for inverters was 0.12-0.18 yuan/W for 20kw, 0.12-0.17 yuan/W for 50kw, and 0.11-0.16 yuan/W for 110kw. The low-end prices of inverters have slightly decreased. Recently, domestic centralized procurement demand has supported orders for high-power models, and companies' production schedules have steadily increased. Inventory levels for inverters in Europe are gradually improving.