Stainless steel imports in April recovered with significant growth in cold-rolled stainless steel imports from Indonesia, overseas demand continued positive trend [SMM Analysis]

Imports: According to SMM, China's stainless steel imports in April amounted to 202,700 mt, up approximately 25.45% MoM and 26.71% YoY. Imports from Indonesia totalled about 166,000 mt (excluding stainless steel scrap), up approximately 79.03% YoY and 35.05% MoM. Different types and their MoM: stainless steel coils (+67,000 mt or 98.3% MoM), profiles (+1.94% MoM), and narrow strips (+13.12% MoM). The increase in April imports was mainly from Indonesia, with stainless steel imports up about 43,100 mt MoM. April imports recovered from March but remained lower than January-February levels. Notably, cold-rolled stainless steel imports from Indonesia were 111,800 mt in April, up 61,700 mt MoM, and averaged 72,000 mt in Q1. SMM speculates that this is related to the approval of registered warrant qualifications for Indonesian stainless steel, and cold-rolled stainless steel imports are expected to remain at a high level.

Exports: According to SMM, China's stainless steel exports in April reached 476,800 mt, up 3.89% MoM and up 14.92% YoY. Except for coils, all other types saw varying degrees of growth. Vietnam (accounting for 9.73% of total exports) replaced India (down from 10.25% to 7.16%) to become the top buyer. Demand from South Korea increased significantly compared to last year, while overall demand from Europe and the US decreased. Although stainless steel consumption in Turkey and the US remained strong, the share of exports to Europe fell from 5.88% to 3.88%. The share of the top ten export destinations fell from 64% to 59%, indicating a decrease in concentration. The deepening geopolitical conflicts overseas are favorable for commodities and non-ferrous metals. Additionally, the overall loss in the nickel and stainless steel industry chain makes it difficult for overseas steel mills to resume production. With the positive manufacturing PMI in developing countries and the expectation of a supply gap, China’s exports still enjoy certain advantages. May, the traditional off-season for consumption, may see exports decline but remain at a high level in a month-month manner.