PCAM and CAM price review and forecast

Ternary cathode precursor

Ternary cathode precursor prices slightly declined in the week ending April 11 due to fluctuations in metal salt prices. Facing losses, precursor companies continued their selective order-taking strategy, focusing on key clients. The main increase in orders stems from domestic Series 6 demand, with potential future shifts towards Series 5 and 8. Potential declines in nickel and cobalt salt prices have led downstream cathode manufacturers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, focusing on just-in-time procurement. Despite risk of slight decreases in precursor prices due to cost fluctuations, essential purchasing needs persist due to low inventory levels and the transmission of incremental end-user orders, limiting the overall downward potential.

Ternary cathode material

Ternary cathode material prices experienced a modest rebound in the week ending April 11 due to rising lithium prices increasing manufacturing costs. Scheduled production in April continued to expand, albeit at a reduced pace. In terms of material composition, Series 5 materials made up 22%, Series 6 comprised 30%, and Series 8/9 accounted for 47%, with Series 6 increasingly displacing Series 5 in market share. Enterprises specializing in high-nickel content materials have experienced considerable growth, while second-tier manufacturers have seen a slight recovery, indicating a potential increase in market concentration. On the demand side, the consumer and power battery markets are expected to maintain a slight upward trend in April. However, stringent price requirements from battery cell manufacturers challenge material manufacturers to increase profits despite growing volumes. In the EV market, some automakers initiated price wars at the start of the month to sustain orders, with an upcoming auto show potentially boosting new energy vehicle sales. Scheduled production increases in battery cell factories are maintaining strong demand for ternary materials, with prices expected to remain mostly stable.

LFP

On the cost side, lithium carbonate price has recently increased slightly, and the price of iron phosphate has also moved upward, leading to a modest rise in LFP prices. LFP manufacturers negotiate LFP prices with battery cell makers based on lithium carbonate prices. If both sides fail to reach a consensus in pricing, LFP producers may request that the battery cell factories provide their own lithium carbonate. Lithium salt producers are maintaining firm prices, often favoring sales to traders who bid higher or supplying futures markets to maximize profits, placing LFP manufacturers in a passive position when purchasing lithium carbonate.

LCO

LCO prices were stable in the week ending April 11. Although lithium prices rebounded slightly and Co3O4 prices were stable, increasing manufacturing costs, mainstream manufacturers maintained their price quotes. However, some manufacturers raised their prices slightly, leading to weaker transactions. Leading LCO manufacturers have maintained high output levels in April, while most second-tier manufacturers kept production stable. Some manufacturers are expected to increase scheduled production following the release of new capacities. The high-end digital LCO market is showing signs of recovery, with leading battery cell manufacturers slightly increasing their order volumes, although demand for e-cigarettes remains weak. The LCO market is mature with limited growth potential, leading to fierce competition. Some suppliers are shifting towards alternative materials, yet prices for LCO materials are expected to remain relatively stable.

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