SMM copper morning comment: Copper prices meet resistance on rebounding US dollar index

Publicado: Mar 28, 2024 10:00
LME copper prices opened at $8858/mt and closed at $8867.5/mt overnight, up 0.05%, with the highest of $8880/mt and the lowest of $8776/mt. Trading volume was 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 310,000 lots. The most active SHFE 2405 copper contract prices opened at 71840 yuan/mt and finished at 72080 yuan/mt overnight, with the high-end of 72120 yuan/mt and the low-end of 71640 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. Trading volume was 34,000 lots, and open interest stood at 188,000 lots.

LME copper prices opened at $8858/mt and closed at $8867.5/mt overnight, up 0.05%, with the highest of $8880/mt and the lowest of $8776/mt. Trading volume was 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 310,000 lots. The most active SHFE 2405 copper contract prices opened at 71840 yuan/mt and finished at 72080 yuan/mt overnight, with the high-end of 72120 yuan/mt and the low-end of 71640 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. Trading volume was 34,000 lots, and open interest stood at 188,000 lots. On the macro front, Fed Governor Waller said that the stickiness of inflation indicated that there was no need to rush to cut interest rates. The US dollar fluctuated in a range at the beginning of the session. At the same time, the smelters will hold a quarterly meeting on the 28th, which may boost macro sentiments, and copper prices closed slightly higher. In terms of fundamentals, from the supply side, traders have a need to withdraw funds near the end of the month. Some supply of goods was delivered to warehouses. At the same time, the volume of arrivals decreased to a certain extent. In terms of consumption, copper prices and premiums have both declined, but end-use consumption continues to be weak and there are also financial constraints. Downstream replenishment is still weak. Overall supply and demand have weakened. Taken together, the yen once fell to its lowest level in 34 years, pushing the U.S. dollar sharply higher. The Bank of Japan has yet to take practical measures to respond. The U.S. dollar may remain high. It is expected that there will be pressure on copper prices.

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[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 55,500 mt, down 11,000 mt WoW from Monday this week; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 23,200 mt, up 3,200 mt WoW, with inventory trends in the two east China regions clearly diverging. The rapid destocking in Shanghai was driven on one hand by the pullback in copper prices and spot premiums in the previous trading session, which released some dip-buying from downstream buyers and led to solid spot warehouse withdrawals; on the other hand, arrivals remained relatively limited recently, further pushing Shanghai inventory lower. Jiangsu, by contrast, saw inventory buildup due to concentrated arrivals from some smelters. On the demand side, buying picked up after yesterday's copper price pullback, but intraday consumption enthusiasm has already cooled, with downstream buyers returning to just-in-time procurement and remaining limited in their acceptance of current premiums. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between the front and next month contracts remains at a relatively high level, and suppliers' rollover and shipment pace will remain a key variable affecting spot premiums. Overall, low inventory and limited arrivals in Shanghai provide some support to spot prices, but insufficient demand sustainability still caps premium upside. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain rangebound tomorrow, with the center possibly edging slightly lower, though room for a further sharp decline is relatively limited. Going forward, the key focus will be on changes in the backwardation structure between the front and next month contracts.
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SMM copper morning comment: Copper prices meet resistance on rebounding US dollar index - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)