China’s locally-made passenger vehicle retail sales likely to plunge 43.5% MoM: CPCA

Shanghai (Gasgoo)- As the Lunar New Year unfolds, China's passenger vehicle market in February showcases a nuanced performance, with an estimated retail volume of around 1.15 million units, marking a conventional seasonal downturn of 43.5% compared to the previous month, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association ("CPCA").

The new energy vehicle sector, which is likely to record retail sales of approximately 380,000 units in February, may experience a seasonal plunge of 43% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of roughly 33%.

For clarity, the passenger vehicles mentioned in this report only refer to cars, SUVs, and MPVs locally produced in China.

As the Chinese New Year holiday fell in mid-February this year, with only 18 working days, the automotive market experiences a seasonal lull and flexible vacation schedules. Many enterprises tend to take extended breaks around the Chinese New Year, resulting in significantly lower effective production and sales time for passenger vehicles in February compared to the same period last year. Diverging from last year's successively month-on-month growth, February marks the lowest point in the vehicle market for the year of 2024, aligning with historical seasonal trends.

The impact of the Chinese New Year holiday is evident in the weekly trends for February. The first week, still part of the pre-holiday rush, sees a daily retail average of 54,300 units, a robust 47.5% increase compared to the same period last year, with a marginal 0.5% month-on-month growth. The second week, incorporating the Spring Festival, witnesses a daily average retail of 26,300 units, a 32.5% year-on-year decline, and a substantial 55% month-on-month slump. The third week post-holiday shows a gradual market recovery, with an anticipated daily average retail of 28,800 units, marking a 53.9% year-on-year and 56.2% month-on-month decrease. The projected fourth week indicates a continuous market rebound, with an estimated daily average retail of 90,200 units, showcasing a notable 70.5% year-on-year surge, but a marginal 2.5% month-on-month dip.