SMM review and forecast of film and granules prices

As the Chinese New Year holidays is approaching, plastic film companies are gradually entering a holiday state. Factories are shut down, production lines are stopped, and prices are locked. Stable plastic film prices in January have become a generally recognized result in everyone's mind.

As of February 6, 2024, the price of 420-gram white EVA film is 6.72-6.93 yuan/square meter, the price of 420-gram transparent EVA film is 6.26-6.47 yuan/square meter, and the price of 380-gram EPE film is 7.56-7.94 yuan/square meter. The price of 460g heavy POE film is 13.34-13.80 yuan/square meter.

After the Chinese New Year holidays, inventory accumulation may occur and market supply will increase.

According to forecast1. , the national component demand may reach around 30GW in February (assuming 30GW, subject to "actual forecast" and "actual results"), and it is expected that the production performance may be even more sluggish than in January. Even if some film manufacturers will roll over orders from January to February which can provide support for February's operating rate, it will not ultimately affect the results of the destocking of films.

According to the work plans of previous years, it is speculated that the prices of granules and film may experience an unstable fluctuation stage after the holidays.

If the price of upstream granules rises after the holiday and the willingness of film vendors to purchase film is weak, it remains unsure whether the price can maintain the current state in the short term; if the price of upstream granules rises after the holiday and the willingness of film vendors to purchase film is strong, the purchasing pace may be advanced, thereby further pushing up granules prices; if the upstream granule prices are stable after the holiday and the willingness to purchase is weak, the possibility of further increases in granule prices in the short term will immediately decrease, and the price may fluctuate slightly or remain stable; if the upstream granule price is stable after the holiday and the film dealers have a strong willingness to purchase film, the film procurement will remain normal. On this basis, granule prices may rise steadily due to large-volume orders.

Generally speaking, there is a tendency for granule prices to increase after the holidays.

1. Note: The forecast results do not represent the actual results and are only used as a reference and estimate.