SMM analysis: solar cell factory operating rates dropped in February, market divergence widened

SMM reports February's scheduled production for 50 solar cell firms is 41.53GW, with P-type at 37.09% and N-type at 62.91%, down 17% from January due to the Spring Festival.

February's planned P-type solar cell scheduled production is 15.41GW, down 28% MoM. N-type is 26.13GW, down 18% MoM. P-type solar cell scheduled production fell mainly due to integrated module makers, with leading cell factories showing mixed scheduled production changes. SMM reports top solar cell firms and integrated module companies will keep N-type lines running through Spring Festival without breaks. Smaller solar firms and new Topcon plants will take 8-15 day breaks, with some halting for a month for upgrades.

It is worried that solar cell line operating rates may lag behind demand post-holiday, risking shortages and price hikes. SMM cites high concentration of N-type solar cell orders and market split as key issues, with a pre-Chinese New Year N-type module scheduled production surge bringing a surge in orders at some solar cell makers, while new plants face order scarcity and low operating rates. This situation is partly due to the fact that during the second half of 2023, different start times for major solar cell makers, varied time of order intake, supplier structure optimization by module factories, and uneven new equipment adoption and efficiency among manufacturers contribute to varied demand satisfaction of module makers.

SMM's survey found February saw lower module production but ample solar cell supply. With demand rising in March and April, a high-efficiency solar cell shortage may push N-type solar cell prices up.