China Lithium Hydroxide Production Fell In November Amid Oversupply And Bleak Market, With Continued Decline Into December

In November 2023, China's lithium hydroxide production reached 20,970 mt, down 4% MoM and 16% YoY. In November, the overall market for lithium hydroxide continued to be characterized by weak supply and demand.

Despite new production lines and increased total capacity, lithium hydroxide remains in oversupply. Price inversion with lithium carbonate has led to losses and slow production and sales for causticizing smelters. High inventories and slow de-stocking persist, prompting some producers to reduce operating rates, slash production, and clear lithium hydroxide and raw material stocks for year-end cash flows.

Demand for lithium hydroxide remains weak, with a bleak market outlook, as downstream battery cell makers cut orders for high-nickel products, lengthening the inventory cycle for cathode materials. Since mid-November, purchasing has dropped sharply, with manufacturers focusing on fulfilling long-term contracts and spot buying nearly ceasing, showing little sign of near-term recovery.

SMM forecasts that given the current lithium hydroxide production has reached a phase of low output, the market will continue to see a downward trend in both volume and price. However, the decline is expected to narrow. The projected production for December is anticipated to be 20,540 mt, down 2% MoM and 19% YoY.