Three factors contributed to sharp decline in aluminum ingot inventory in China

SMM statistics on November 23, 2023, showed China's domestic aluminum ingot inventory at 644,000 mt, down 20,000 mt from November 20 and 33,000 mt WoW, up 126,000 mt YoY. Inventory has been notably declining since November due to reduced imports, Yunnan's production cuts, and improved aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals. This ten-day downward trend, significantly driven by inventory reduction in Gongyi, has brought the total inventory below 650,000 mt. Spot goods transportation has shifted recently as Guangdong-Shanghai price gaps widened, leading Xinjiang aluminum smelters to increase shipments to South China, which reduced arrivals in other major consumption areas, particularly Gongyi. Signs of spot goods moving from East to South China are evident, with some traders preparing since last week. Imported aluminum ingots have been absorbed, also contributing to inventory reduction. However, the import window showed signs of re-opening this week, potentially introducing goods from the bonded area. The impact of these imports on social aluminum ingot inventory should be monitored.