The latest forecast, released by Canalys on November 23rd on X, suggests a rebound in the global smartphone market by 2024 and an increase in shipment volumes. In 2023, the global smartphone shipments are estimated to be 1.13 billion units, marking a 5% decline from 2022. However, 2024 projections indicate a rise to 1.17 billion units, a 4% increase from 2023.
Canalys has observed that consumers are now more willing to spend more on smartphones, with the global average selling price reaching approximately $440 (around ¥3142 RMB).
Emerging markets in Asia and Africa are poised to be at the centre of the industry's growth in 2024. It's expected that 33% of all newly manufactured smartphones will be shipped to these regions, including countries like India, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. This growth is attributed to increasing consumer confidence and better macroeconomic conditions, which are expected to stabilise smartphone shipments. Recent data from October suggests that emerging markets are leading the recovery, with the Middle East and Africa showing the highest year-over-year sales growth, followed by China and India. With the sustained recovery of demand in the Middle East and Africa, Huawei's resurgence in the Chinese market, and the arrival of the festive season in India, emerging markets are spearheading this growth trend.
Excluding North America, Canalys forecasts growth in all key global markets by 2024. The Asia-Pacific region, Middle East, and Africa are projected to see a 6% year-over-year increase, while Europe is expected to have a 7% annual growth rate. The consumer demand for smartphones is anticipated to continue its upward trend, reaching a shipment volume of 125 million by 2027.
SMM suggests that the average smartphone replacement cycle is around 30 months, and 2024 is expected to witness a minor surge in replacements. However, due to various challenges such as component shortages, inventory backlogs, and extended replacement cycles experienced in 2022 and 2023, the global smartphone sales have been under pressure. Even with the predicted rebound in 2024, the situation is only expected to be marginally better than in 2023. The smartphone industry needs to optimise and integrate its supply chain system, maintaining caution with raw material supplies and cost control, while actively expanding sales channels.
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