China’s copper anode imports grew in October, primarily contributed by Zambia and Chile, imports to stabilize or rise slightly in November

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 83,300 mt of copper anodes in October 2023, a month-on-month increase of 14.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; from January to October 2023, China imported a total of 866,900 mt of copper anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of 12.45%.

China imported 44,900 mt of copper anode from Zambia in October 2023, accounting for 53.93% of the total import volume, a month-on-month increase of 57.68%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.33%; imports from Chile were 11,800 mt, 14.22% of the total, a month-on-month increase of 39.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.15%; imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo were 7,500 mt, 9.02% of the total, a month-on-month decrease of 32.73%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.08%.

Zambia and Chile made significant contributions to the growth of China’s copper anode import in October, driven by several factors. 1. The import profit window opened in August, with profits reaching this year's high in mid to late August. 2. Production at Vendanta’s KCM smelter in Zambia recovered after maintenance. 3. The completion of maintenance by domestic copper cathode smelters boosted demand for imported copper anode.

In contrast, imports from D.R.Congo slumped as local political turmoil, labor shortages and insufficient truck transportation capacity hindered shipments.

The SHFE/LME copper price ratio fell back in September but began to climb in mid-September. Logistics will remain the major issue that hinders shipments in Africa. With the passing of peak season for farm products transportation in August and September, logistics tightness in Africa should ease in October, but the impact on China’s copper anode import will be limited in November due to time lag caused by long shipping time. SMM estimates that China’s copper anode imports in November will barely change or grow only slightly compared to October.

With rising copper price recently, the price gap between copper cathode and copper scrap widened. Growing copper scrap supply has boosted domestic copper anode production. This, coupled with import recovery, should alleviate domestic copper anode supply crunch to a certain extent.