China's copper cathode output in October was 993,800 mt, a decrease of 18,200 mt or 1.8% month-on-month, but a growth of 10.3% year-on-year. The output was 2,200 mt lower than the expected 996,000 mt. The total output from January to October was 9.48 million mt, an increase of 967,400 mt or 11.36% year-on-year.
Although only three smelters were undergoing maintenance in October, many smelters were subject to tight blister copper (this was also reflected in RCs of blister copper which consistently stood at a low level during the year. According to the latest statistics from SMM, as of early November, the RCs of blister copper in south China averaged 850 yuan/mt). This caused an unexpected drop in output. In addition, new production capacity did not produce large volumes of output. There will not be significant output growth until December. The average operating rate of the copper cathode industry fell 1.88 percentage points month on month to 92.34% in October.
According to SMM statistics, only two smelters have maintenance plans in November. However, the tight supply of blister copper is still plaguing some smelters. Meanwhile, the newly-commissioned smelters have not yet yielded output, which will limit the total output growth in November. We believe that production in November will only increase slightly from October to over 1 million mt. Domestic copper cathode output is estimated at 1 million mt in November, up 7,400 mt or 0.74% MoM and 11.3% YoY, according to the current production schedules. The accumulated output from January to November is expected to stand at 10.48 million mt, an increase of 11.36% or 1.07 million mt year on year.
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