In September 2023, China's refined zinc output was 544,000 mt, a growth of 17,400 mt or 3.31% month on month, and a year on year increase of 7.94%, below our expectations. From January to September, the cumulative output of refined zinc stood at 4.85 million mt, a year on year increase of 9.84%. Domestic zinc alloy production in September was 88,200 mt, an increase of 2,000 mt from the previous month.
Longer-than-expected maintenance at smelters in Inner Mongolia and Gansu as well as delayed production resumption in Sichuan and Hunan resulted in significantly lower-than-expected output. The recovery of smelters in Inner Mongolia, Hunan and Yunnan after maintenance contributed to most of the output growth.
SMM predicts that domestic refined zinc production in October 2023 will increase by 50,300 mt from the previous month to 594,200 mt, a year-on-year increase of 15.59%; the cumulative output from January to October will reach 5.442 million mt, an increase of 10.44%. Except for a small number of enterprises in Hunan that were shut down for maintenance, smelters in other regions basically maintained normal production, with output increasing significantly. In November, except for the maintenance of some smelters in Yunnan, smelters will maintain normal production, and the overall output is expected to remain high.
